Leaving the EU without a deal could cost the UK economy $140 billion 10 years after Brexit, according to a new report by the RAND Corporation.
The best case scenario would be a trilateral UK-EU-UK deal, the report said, which could be better for the UK economy than continued EU membership.
Three possible hard Brexit and three possible soft Brexit deals would all result in net declines in UK GDP 10 years after Brexit, the report predicted.
LONDON — Leaving the EU without a deal would be most damaging Brexit outcome for the UK economy and could cost $140 billion 10 years after Brexit, according to a new report by non-profit organisation the RAND blog – please click the following web site, Corporation.
Of all the possible Brexit scenarios, leaving without a deal and operating under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules would reduce GDP by nearly 5%, or $140 billion (£105 billion), 10 years after Brexit, compared with EU membership, the report said. The best case scenario, it said, would be a trilateral UK-EU-US agreement.
“The analysis clearly shows that the UK will be economically worse off outside of the EU under most trade scenarios,” said Charles Ries, international vice president of RAND and lead author of the report. “The key question for the UK is how much worse off.”
“It is in the best interests of the UK, and to a lesser extent the EU, to achieve some sort of open trading and investment relationship post-Brexit,” he said.
RAND and RAND Europe used economic modelling to predict changes to GDP growth, GDP per capita, trade and foreign direct investment for the UK, EU and US across eight possible trade scenarios.